Montana's Senate seat is winnable — but only in a head-to-head race. Independent Seth Bodnar trails by just 2 points one-on-one. In a three-way race, the opposition splits and the seat is gone.
We respect Alani Bankhead and her service. We're asking her to do the hardest, most consequential thing a candidate can do: step aside by August 10 and give Montana a real choice.
The latest independent polling tells one clear story: head-to-head, Seth Bodnar trails the Republican nominee by just 2 points. Alani Bankhead trails the same opponent by 18.
A month ago, Bodnar was down 6. The race is moving — fast — toward the only candidate positioned to win it. And this seat isn't just a seat: control of the United States Senate may run straight through Montana.
In a three-way race, the anti-establishment and pro-democracy vote splits, and the seat is decided by default. In a two-way race, Montanans get a genuine contest.
There is one path to victory, and only one candidate on it. Don’t take our word for it — flip a candidate off the ballot and watch where their voters go.
Illustrative simulation built from late-July statewide polling (three-way and head-to-head matchups); vote transfers estimated from the same survey’s crosstabs. Remaining share is undecided. This is a model, not a prediction. Full toplines (PDF)
Alani Bankhead has said she won't step aside because 48,000 Montanans voted for her in the June primary, and she refuses to disrespect them. That instinct is honorable. But ask what those 48,000 people actually voted for.
They didn't vote for a name. They voted to win this seat — for their families, their freedoms, and their state.
The truest way to honor those votes is to make sure they count for something in November. That's why our goal is simple:
48,000
Montana voters — many of them the same people who cast those primary ballots — signing their names to say: we release you. Step aside, and you'll be remembered not as the candidate who lost by 18, but as the leader who put Montana first when it mattered most.
Dear Ms. Bankhead,
We are Montana voters. Many of us have supported you, voted for you, and admired your work fighting for women and children. We are not writing to tear you down. We are writing to ask you to lead.
You have said yourself that this race cannot be won on the current path. The numbers agree: head-to-head, an independent challenger is within 2 points of flipping this seat. In a divided field, it is lost — and with it, perhaps, the balance of the United States Senate at a moment when checks and balances matter more than they have in generations.
You owe the 48,000 Montanans who voted for you something greater than staying in: you owe them a fighting chance to win. We, the undersigned, ask you to withdraw your candidacy before August 10 and let Montana have a true two-way race.
History remembers the leaders who knew when the cause was bigger than the candidacy. Be one of them.
— The undersigned voters of Montana
Seth Bodnar is an independent candidate for U.S. Senate — a former Army officer, Green Beret, and former President of the University of Montana. He is running as an independent, not as a Democrat or Republican, and qualified for the ballot by petition signatures from Montana voters.
We think it's the opposite. Those voters showed up to win a Senate seat, not to make a symbolic point. Nominees have stepped aside before when circumstances changed — it's rare, it's hard, and it's sometimes the most respectful thing a candidate can do for their own voters. Our goal of 48,000 verified signatures exists so that the ask comes from the same Montana electorate she's citing.
Late-July statewide polling shows Bodnar within 2 points of the Republican nominee head-to-head, while Bankhead trails by 18 head-to-head. In early July, Bodnar's deficit was 6 points — the race is tightening as Montanans learn who he is. We link the full toplines so you can read them yourself.
[VERIFY WITH ELECTION LAWYER BEFORE PUBLISHING — plain-language explanation of Montana withdrawal/replacement law, MCA citation, and what actually happens to the ballot line after an Aug 10 withdrawal.]
[NAME THE SPONSORING ENTITY PLAINLY — organization, treasurer, and a contact email. Anonymous pressure campaigns backfire; a named sponsor is both legally required and more persuasive.]
When you sign, we check your name, ZIP code, and birth year against the publicly available Montana voter file, live. Your birth year is used only for that check — it is never stored or shared, and we keep only your name and ZIP. Signatures we can't match are recorded as provisional and are not counted in the public verified total. We publish the verified count only — never the voter file data itself.